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11-07-2019 04:42:20

panxing18
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Date d'inscription: 15-05-2019
Messages: 81

The roster will look different by

April 2019 Bob Uecker Jersey , but here’s a dispassionate look at the year to come."The 2018 MLB season is now under wraps, which means it’s time to start looking ahead. FanGraphs has already released their Steamer projections for the 2019 season, giving a dispassionate look at how each MLB team profiles next year. In particular, we’re interested in the Detroit Tigers, and where their major needs are concentrated.Steamer is based in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement (fWAR), which, for our money, is the best and simplest method for projecting the season to come. Whichever method one prefers, this is only a rough pass to begin with, so there’s little need to haggle over the details.Remember that the 2019 roster isn’t a finished product yet by any means. Presumably, the Tigers will sign at least some small number of free agents this offseason. Perhaps a trade will come along that substantially alters the rosters overall forecast, though it doesn’t seem terribly likely at the moment. Players will obviously underwhelm expectations, while others surprise and outperform their projections. Steamer aims to strike a balance between the wide variations one can expect when actual baseball, rather than theoretical baseball, is on the menu again in April. Just as fuel for argument — err, productive, rational and respectful discussion — let’s take a crack at the Tigers roster, knowing that this isn’t anything like a final verdict.Position PlayersThe Tigers have pointedly expressed interest in signing both a shortstop to replace Jose Iglesias, as well as a veteran catcher to take over from James McCann. They could potentially add a veteran on a short-term deal to handle second base, too. Niko Goodrum and Ronny Rodriguez aren’t going to be the Tigers’ starting middle infield, or they are going to have an even rougher season than expected. Nicholas Castellanos could end up traded this winter. But this is the projected outcome as things stand in mid-November.2019 Steamer ProjectionsPlayerPAHRSBwRC+fWARPlayerPAHRSBwRC+fWARThose projections credit the Tigers with 12.7 fWAR over 5,386 plate appearances in 2019. That’s roughly 800-900 fewer PAs than the average team compiles in a season, so there are plenty of at-bats to be allocated to players yet to be determined. Catcher Grayson Greiner, for example, is projected for 30 games and 119 plate appearances. Steamer has him posting an 83 wRC+, with a value of 0.4 fWAR. Prospects like Dawel Lugo, Brandon Dixon and Willi Castro are each projected for 110 or fewer plate appearances of replacement level production. The same is true for veteran shortstop Peter Kozma, who looks like he will once again provide some depth at the Triple-A level.The Tigers’ position players were worth just 8.0 fWAR in 2018. The projection for Miguel Cabrera appears pretty crucial, as his return would provide a semblance of foundation to build a lineup around. The loss of Victor Martinez, who posted -1.7 fWAR in 2018, is addition by subtraction, assuming they can better allocate those plate appearances next season. Either way Tyler Flowers Jersey , Steamer like the Tigers to be worth roughly 13 fWAR, a decent improvement, that would have placed the Tigers 23rd among MLB teams in 2018, rather than the 27th place finish they actually managed.Starting RotationStarting pitcher is another area where the Tigers will almost certainly make a free agent signing. Based on the four current starters and projected contributions from Blaine Hardy, Spencer Turnbull, and Matt Hall, there are 146 of 162 starts filled, leaving 16 to be accounted for in free agency or by other internal options. Top prospects with a year of Double-A experience, such as Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser don’t come into the picture here, but they (and others) could potentially play a role later in the season.2019 Steamer Projections-Starting RotationPlayerGSIPERAFIPfWARPlayerGSIPERAFIPfWARCertainly, things aren’t going to work out like this, but don’t get caught up in individual projections. The same process that seems to overestimate the likely contributions of Hardy, Hall, and Turnbull balances those projections with a reputation for conservatism toward expectations for active major leaguers. We’re just trying to get a rough idea of what the 2019 Tigers look like before general manager Al Avila and his staff start making moves. And of course, no projection system can account for the toll injuries take on pitchers most of all. Currently, the rotation looks to be worth 7.2 fWAR next season. They managed 8.8 fWAR in 2018 with the contributions of Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano. The innings projections for Daniel Norris and Jordan Zimmermann seem particularly optimistic, but if the Tigers can add a solid starting pitcher to the mix, there’s a solid chance they can improve on their overall 2018 value. Still, if all the starters reached those projected innings totals, the Tigers would count themselves pretty lucky.What this does reflect is that the vastly improved depth in the farm system should provide a level of farm support the Tigers have rarely had over the last two decades. That may mitigate the usual injury issues that plague any rotation. If they can find themselves just a league average starter, they should come in somewhere between 8-10 fWAR next season.Overall win projectionRight now, the Tigers look set for 67-68 wins next season. Taking the standard replacement level win production, 47 fWAR, you add 13 positional fWAR, and 7.2 fWAR from the rotation, and we’re at 67.2 wins. This is basically right where most expect. However, it is notable that the Tigers can get there without any signings. Their bullpen was worth 2.1 fWAR in 2018; assuming they can produce that much again, the Tigers are looking at 69-70 wins before they make a move.Viewed from this perspective, it’s not hard to conceive of a handful of veteran signings pushing the Tigers toward a total of 75-80 wins. Of course, the point would then be to trade said players at the trade deadline, undercutting their actual season win total with a fading second half. The Tigers have openings at starting pitcher. They could use a free agent reliever to really solidify the bullpen. They appear to be searching for a catcher, and don’t have a starter set to play both shortstop and second base. Trades could fill or create other openings. But in the end http://www.bravesfanproshop.com/authentic-nick-markakis-jersey , the 2019 Tigers probably won’t look much different than the 2018 version in terms of their win total. From potential 1st rounders to late rounders to everything in between. Nothing is off limits to get you up to speed on 2019 MLB draft prospects."We are about 15 games into the college baseball season and it’s been pretty exciting. There have been quite a few walk-offs, of which Kyle McCann of Georgia Tech has 3 of them. Pretty soon the mock drafts should start to drop, so they’ll get added to the weekly write-ups as they come in.In the meantime, I have updated my player tracker. This will have basic player info, stats, as well as additional notes. The pitchers are more detailed right now in terms of velocity and pitches thrown. I’ll continue to update and refine as the season goes along and more info comes out. Some of the top HS players have been added on separate tabs. This is a labor of love so enjoy.Let’s dive into which players are trending up/down (stats are through Sat 3/9).College player stock trending upJaxx Groshans, C, Kansas - Good catchers in college are as rare as they are in MLB, so when even a decent one comes along, I’m going to do my best to get his name out there. Even if he’s not a top prospect like Adley Rutschman, Groshans is slashing .419/.544/.930 that includes 7 HRs (including a grand slam on March 8). His strikeout rate is under 20%, too. On defense, his caught steal rate is really strong at 38%, he hasn’t committed an error yet, and has only 1 passed ball.His brother, Jordan, was drafted in the 1st round of 2018 by those pesky Blue Jays.Thomas Dillard, 1B, Ole Miss - The switch hitting C/LF is slashing .431/.547/.863 with 6 HRs. He has a 20% BB-rate and a 14% K-rate. All very solid numbers. He’s mostly played LF, but has caught a couple of games. I’d imagine he’s not going to win a team a gold glove in the future, so that puts more pressure on the bat.Kody Hoese, IF, Tulane - Hoese isn’t a household name. Before this season, I doubt many people were talking about him. Maybe they still aren’t. Doesn’t change the fact that he’s off to an exceptional start. He’s helped Tulane to a winning record (so far) and if the pace continues, it would be their first season above .500 since 2016. The 6’3” 3B is slashing .379/.427/.727 while sporting a 10% BB-rate and a super low 5% K-rate. Hoese has already hit more HRs this season than his previous 2 seasons combined.JJ Bedlay, OF, Vanderbilt - One of the bigger names in the draft. While I’m trying my best to stay away from talking solely about 1st rounders, Bedlay has been sizzling lately. He’s slashing .429/.514/.786. His only plus tool is his arm, but he should hit for average and offer some power.And I know you love bat flips.Luke Ritter, 2B, Wichita State - Braves drafted Ritter’s teammate last year in Greyson Jenista. Ritter was already coming off a solid season, but has taken his game up a notch this year. He’s slashing .431/.547/.667 so far this season. He’s a little light on XBH Phil Niekro Jersey , but is sporting a fantastic 20% BB-rate and 11% K-rate. He’s split time between 2B and OF, so this ups his versatility, too. Ritter is a senior, though, so that impacts his stock somewhat. He was drafted in the 37th round in 2018 by the Twins.Isaiah Campbell, RHP, Arkansas - In addition to a 92-95 mph fastball, Campbell will throw a cutter, slider and change. He’s off to a fantastic start to the season and hopefully he can keep that up.Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State - While Jameson has been inconsistent across his 4 starts, he’s certainly racking up the strikeouts. He’s struck out at least 9 batters each start. His fastball can sit mid 90’s and maxing out at 97. His slider will also flash plus. He can be a bit too hittable at times and he will walk a guy. If Jameson can work on his pitchability and not rely on being a thrower, he’ll continue to increase his stock. Standing 6’0” tall, there will be some durability questions. More info below.Tommy Henry, LHP, Michigan - Henry isn’t a hard thrower, sitting in the low 90’s, but his slider is a solid pitch. He’s also a strike thrower which has allowed him to keep the walk rate under 2.00 per 9. Henry lifted Michigan over a good UCLA team, which earned him Big 10 player of the week.Noah Song, RHP, Navy - I wrote about Song last year. It’s not for certain he’ll even continue baseball after this season (senior year). He’ll still have to commit to 2 years of active duty before committing to professional ball. However, what he’s doing this season is ridiculous. He leads D1 in strikeouts with 52 and as a starter he’s sporting an 18.57 K/9. He’s also given up just 1 run in 25 innings. I think there’s a lot of talent in his arm where he sits mid 90’s (max 98 mph). It’d be a great story for him to choose baseball, but it’s understandable if he wants to focus on serving his country.Aaron Ochsenbein, RHP, Eastern Kentucky - I’ll root for anyone named Aaron. Our kind have to stick together. It’s a good thing that Ochsenbein has been pretty good. He has 20 strikeouts in 12.1 innings on the season and keeping the walks to a minimum (2.98 BB/9). He’s not a hard thrower, but can reach back to hit 96. He does have a 4 pitch mix, so he’ll likely need to narrow his focus a bit. As a senior, don’t expect him to go in the early rounds.College player stock trending downJames Ciliento, OF, Bryant - Last season Ciliento hit .377 with an OPS of .960, but this season has been a bit more challenging. While has has improved his walk rate, his strikeout rate has jumped to 24%. Meanwhile http://www.bravesfanproshop.com/authentic-nick-markakis-jersey , when he is making contact, it’s not finding empty spaces despite having a .318 BABIP. He’s also a bit older for a junior being 22, but not entirely sure if that hurts his stock a lot. Ciliento will have to hit a lot better to offset the lack of power. Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA - Strumpf is seen as a top 50 prospect, but he has gotten off to a slow start. He’s slashing .275/.383/.471 while striking out 28% of the time. He has just 5 XBH so the lack of power is concerning.Parker Caracci, RHP, Ole Miss - Our first closer on the list and Caracci can bring the heat to the tune of 99 mph. He was coming off a successful 2018, so returning for his senior year was a head scratcher. Needless to say, it might have been the wrong choice. He’s got a talented arm and hopefully he can reduce the walks. Since he’s a senior, there’s not much chance of him getting picked high. With a mediocre season, the Braves could snatch him up in the later rounds. Just look what he was doing last year.Ken Waldichuk, LHP, Saint Mary’s - Coming off an excellent 2018 season and an okay Cape Cod, expectations were pretty high for Waldichuk. Just check out the Baseball America article below. However, this season hasn’t been that bad per say. He’s had one really awful start, 2 okay starts, and one excellent start. Waldichuck stands 6’4” and 220 lbs, he’s about maxed out. He’ll throw 89-93 and max out around 94, so he’s not exactly lighting up the radar guns. Just need more consistency getting back to last year’s control. Kyle Hurt, RHP, USC - Last year, Hurt was part of a no hitter in which he pitched 7 innings. He’ll also be draft eligible as a sophomore since he turns 21 in May. This season has gotten off to a rocky start for Hurt. He’s allowed multiple runs in every start and currently sports a 7.71 ERA. His other key stats are a 11.37 K/9, 7.42 BB/9 and a 1.76 WHIP. Hurt’s fastball can sit 92-94 and he throws a curve and change.Conor Grammes, RHP, Xavier - Our 2nd closer on the list. Grammes throws just as hard as Caracci hitting a max of 99 mph. However, his control is much much worse. He will throw a slider that flashes above avg, but he’s going to have to gain fastball command if he wants to succeed long term. The walk rate sits at 8.24 with a whopping 2.06 WHIP.That’s it for this week. Let me know your thoughts on how some players performed this week on the diamond.

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